Forest Transition and Metropolitan Transformations in Developed Countries: Interpreting Apparent and Latent Dynamics with Local Regression Models

Metropolitan fringes in Southern Europe preserve, under different territorial contexts, natural habitats, relict woodlands, and mixed agro-forest systems acting as a sink of biodiversity ecosystem services ecologically vulnerable landscapes. Clarifying socioeconomic processes that underlie land-use change metropolitan regions is relevant for forest conservation policies. At the same time, long-term dynamics fringe forests northern Mediterranean basin have been demonstrated to be rather mixed, with deforestation up 1950s subsequent recovery more evident recent decades. The present study makes use Forest Transition Theory (FTT) examine spatial loss expansion Rome, Central Italy, through local regressions elaborating two diachronic maps span than 80 years (1936–2018) representative ecological conditions. Our evaluates turnaround from net area gain, considering together predictions FTT those City Life Cycle (CLC) theory provides classical description functioning cycles. empirical findings our document moderate increase cover depending on forestation previously abandoned cropland consequence tighter levels land protection. Natural human-driven small isolated nuclei along was fuel polycentric woodlands. results Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) reveal importance growth expansion. Forest–urban reflect settlement sprawl increased disturbance. contemporary residential settlements peri-urban into agricultural landscapes claims renewed management may reconnect town planning, reducing intrinsic risks associated woodlands (e.g., wildfires) environmental policies preserving functionality diversified systems.